What It Means for Your Deliveries

You have probably seen the news. If you have not, here is the short version: a major military conflict in the Middle East has closed the Strait of Hormuz — the channel through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows. Global oil prices have spiked sharply. South Africa’s diesel price is heading for what analysts are calling one of the largest monthly increases in the country’s history, effective April 1.

We want to be straightforward with you about what this means for The Frozen Food Courier, and what we are doing about it.

Where Diesel Prices Are Headed

The March gazette — effective 4 March — already increased diesel by 62–65 cents per litre, with the DMPR citing Hormuz-related shipping costs as a contributing factor. That increase is already in your current pump price. It is not the story. The story is what is coming in April.

Since the March gazette locked in, the situation has escalated significantly. Brent crude has moved from approximately $60 per barrel earlier this year to above $115 per barrel. The CEF’s daily snapshot for 9 March — published directly on cefgroup.co.za — shows the month-to-date average diesel under-recovery at R5.66/litre as of today. That is the figure that will flow into the April gazette calculation, with approximately 15 trading days of the pricing period still to run. The single-day under-recovery reading for 9 March is R10.18/litre — a figure that reflects where the market is right now if oil prices stay at current levels. Some analysts have warned of an R8/litre scenario if conditions persist through month-end.

On top of this, the 2026 Budget’s fuel levy increases take effect on the same day — 1 April — adding a further 21 cents per litre in General Fuel Levy, Carbon Levy, and Road Accident Fund levy increases that apply regardless of market conditions.

We also operate with a bulk diesel supplier. We have received formal written notification this week of a R2.90 per litre increase effective today, with further weekly increases anticipated through the end of March. Our supplier has cited Middle East supply disruption and distributor-level price adjustments from major fuel brands as the basis.

What This Means for Our Operating Costs

Diesel is our single largest variable operating cost. Our fleet runs daily delivery routes across Gauteng and the Western Cape. Our refrigeration units consume additional diesel independently of the transport diesel — a fully loaded refrigerated vehicle on a long haul burns fuel in both the engine and the reefer unit simultaneously.

The scale of the projected April increase is outside anything our normal rate structures were built to absorb. A diesel increase of R4.50–R8 per litre on current consumption volumes represents a material impact on our cost base — not a rounding error.

Fuel Surcharge: Now Active

This morning, TFFC formally activated its Fuel Surcharge Policy following written notification from our bulk diesel supplier, Shesha Fuels, confirming a R2.90 per litre price increase effective 10 March 2026. This increase exceeds the R2.00/litre trigger threshold set out in our policy, placing us in Tier 2.

What this means in practice:

• Surcharge amount: R10 per delivery stop in Gauteng. R10 per delivery stop in the Western Cape.
• Effective date: In accordance with our policy, a minimum of 7 calendar days’ written notice is required before the surcharge appears on any invoice. Today is 10 March 2026. The surcharge will therefore apply to deliveries from 17 March 2026 at the earliest.
• How it appears: As a separate line item on your invoice, labelled Fuel Surcharge — March 2026.
• It is temporary. The surcharge deactivates automatically when diesel prices return below the trigger threshold for two consecutive billing cycles. We will notify you when that happens.

The full policy — including the calculation methodology, all surcharge tiers, and the deactivation conditions — is published at thefrozenfoodcourier.co.za/fuel-surcharge-policy.

Given that further price increases are anticipated through March and into April, we are monitoring the situation daily. If the wholesale diesel price moves into a higher tier before the April gazette, we will issue an updated notice with the applicable band and at least 7 days’ lead time.

What You Can Do Now

The surcharge is small at Tier 2 — R10 per stop in Gauteng, R10 in the Western Cape. However, given that the April outlook points to further increases that may push us into a higher tier, it is worth planning ahead:

• If you have high delivery frequency, consider whether any consolidation of stops makes operational sense for your business between now and April.
• If you are planning a large April order, be aware that the surcharge tier may be higher by then depending on how the March pricing period closes. Contact us to talk through what your April invoice is likely to look like.
• If you have a formal fixed-rate agreement with us, your agreement specifies the applicable notice period. We will honour it.

Our Commitment

We have been running refrigerated deliveries in Gauteng and the Western Cape for over eight years. We have operated through load shedding, through COVID logistics disruptions, through multiple fuel price cycles. We do not panic, and we do not pass costs through without explaining them.

What we will not do is absorb a R4.50–R8/litre diesel increase silently and then quietly stop being a viable business. The honest version of customer service is telling you what is coming and why — which is what this notice is.

If you have questions, contact us. We will give you a straight answer.

The Frozen Food Courier — Refrigerated courier services across Gauteng and the Western Cape. For industry analysis on the cold chain impact of the Middle East fuel crisis, visit ColdChainSA.com.